Wee Dresser
3yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 48
Newcastle · Northumbrian WaterAid Sprint Handicap · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 6.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Carlisle | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Ayr | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Hamilton | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Carlisle | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Ayr | 4 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-04-13 | Newcastle | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/03/2026 | 7th | 150/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 13/04/2026 | 8th | 150/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 05/05/2026 | 3rd | 200/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 15/06/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 29% | +0.23 |
| 25/06/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/07/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/09/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |