1
Woodhay Whisper
4yo Filly · 9-9 · OR 55
Newcastle · Northumbrian WaterAid Sprint Handicap · 6f
#11
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength49%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Newcastle | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Catterick | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Catterick | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Thirsk | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Southwell | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Southwell | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1317% of fieldRange 7-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength14%
Delivery trend +3.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/02/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 23/02/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 22% | -0.36 |
| 03/03/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 13/03/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 28/03/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 05/06/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 22/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 22/07/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/09/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |