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9

Yaahobby

7yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 45

Newcastle · Northumbrian WaterAid Sprint Handicap · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

45%

Place Prob

35%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Stepped up markedly on recent run to end a long losing run in 9-runner handicap (14/1) over C&D 6 days ago, slowly away. Uncertain to reproduce that form under a 4-lb penalty, though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength28%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 16/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 46 · 6f Std 126 · beat its mark16/12/2025 · OR 46 par16/126OR 466 @ Newcastle 01/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 45 · 6f Std 126 · beat its mark01/01/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Newcastle 20/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 45 · 6f Std 126 · beat its mark20/01/2026 · OR 45 par20/016OR 456 @ Newcastle 04/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 45 · 6f Std 121 · beat its mark04/02/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Newcastle 10/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 45 · 6f Std 135 · beat its mark10/02/2026 · OR 45 par10/026OR 456 @ Newcastle 19/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 45 · 6f Std 135 · beat its mark19/02/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Newcastle 06/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 45 · 6f Std 121 · beat its mark06/03/2026 · OR 45 par6/036OR 456 @ Newcastle 03/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 45 · 7f14y Std 128 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Newcastle 19/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 45 · 6f Std 121 · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 45 par19/096OR 45projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Newcastle61st1st0
2026-09-03Newcastle69th9th0
2026-03-06Newcastle64th4th0
2026-02-19Newcastle66th6th0
2026-02-10Newcastle66th6th0
2026-02-04Newcastle63rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/124/026/0319/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength77%

Delivery trend -1.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/12/20254th18/15%77%+0.72
01/01/20262nd7/163%89%+0.26
20/01/20267th10/147%25%-0.22
04/02/20263rd12/137%67%+0.30
10/02/20266th5/174%44%-0.29
19/02/20266th6/168%38%-0.31
06/03/20264th11/142%57%+0.15
03/09/20269th12/137%33%-0.04
19/09/20261st14/126%100%+0.74