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Alobayyah

4yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 96

Newmarket · Betway British EBF Rosemary Stakes (Fillies' And Mares' Listed) · 1m

#8

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

More than confirmed her reappearance promise when beating 23 rivals in the Kensington Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot in June but turned in an underwhelming display 7 weeks on when seventh of 10 in listed race at Haydock (1m) last time, needing stronger gallop. Worth another chance.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength25%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Yarmouth 22/10/2024 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 1m3y Sft 12822/1041 @ Sandown 30/08/2025 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR - · 1m Sft 126 · HIGHER CLASS30/0815 @ Newcastle 14/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 93 · 1m2f42y Std 132 · below its mark14/10/2025 · OR 93 par14/105OR 932 @ Ascot 09/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 89 · 1m Goo 138 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 89 par9/052OR 892 @ Royal Ascot 17/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 24 · OR 90 · 1m GF 123 · beat its mark17/06/2026 · OR 90 par17/062OR 901 @ Haydock 08/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 96 · 7f212y Goo 130 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 96 par8/081OR 96projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-08Haydock17th7th0
2026-06-17Royal Ascot21st2nd−1
2026-05-09Ascot23rd4th−1
2025-10-14Newcastle55th10th−4
2025-08-30Sandown18th8th+0
2024-10-22Yarmouth41st5th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/1030/0814/109/0517/068/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength50%

Delivery trend -7.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/10/20241st4/179%100%+0.21
30/08/20258th14/126%42%+0.15
14/10/20255th5/696%43%-0.53
09/05/20263rd9/153%75%+0.22
17/06/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
08/08/20267th9/276%33%-0.43