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5

Applesandpears

3yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 85

Newmarket · Betway British EBF Rosemary Stakes (Fillies' And Mares' Listed) · 1m

#7

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Registered back-to-back victories in all-weather novice events in late-2025 and opened her account for the campaign with a 25/1 surprise in 10-runner handicap at Ascot just under 3 weeks ago, first-time cheekpieces seemingly the catalyst. Will probably find a few too good at this level.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Leicester 14/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 6f Goo 12614/1055 @ Chelmsford City 30/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 7f Std 1264 @ Newcastle 17/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 6f Std 13317/1144 @ Haydock 09/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 84 · 7f212y Gd 134 · below its mark09/05/2026 · OR 84 par3 @ Carlisle 30/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 84 · 6f195y Goo 126 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 84 par30/053OR 841 @ Carlisle 24/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 84 · 6f195y GF 128 · beat its mark24/06/2026 · OR 84 par4 @ Wolverhampton 17/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 84 · 7f36y Std 134 · below its mark17/07/2026 · OR 84 par17/074OR 842 @ Ascot 05/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 83 · 1m Goo 123 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 83 par5/092OR 83projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Ascot21st2nd−1
2026-07-17Wolverhampton46th10th−3
2026-06-24Carlisle16th6th0
2026-05-30Carlisle33rd6th−2
2026-05-09Haydock48th12th−3
2025-11-17Newcastle41st5th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/109/0517/075/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength65%

Delivery trend +3.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/10/20252nd6/168%86%+0.17
30/10/20251st11/1094%100%+0.06
17/11/20251st1/398%100%+0.02
09/05/20268th8/158%22%-0.36
30/05/20263rd7/163%75%+0.12
24/06/20266th9/276%44%-0.32
17/07/20266th7/282%38%-0.44
05/09/20261st25/10%100%+1.00