Arisaig
5yo Mare · 9-4 · OR 99
Newmarket · Betway British EBF Rosemary Stakes (Fillies' And Mares' Listed) · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Ascot | 1 | 7th | 7th | +0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Pontefract | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 8th | 8th | +0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Goodwood | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-14 | Newmarket | 2 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-10-18 | Ascot | 2 | 18th | 19th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 56% | -0.23 |
| 24/08/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 26/09/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 82% | -0.01 |
| 18/10/2025 | 18th | 14/1 | 26% | 11% | -0.16 |
| 14/04/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 89% | +0.42 |
| 02/05/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 17/06/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 07/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 82% | -0.04 |
| 25/07/2026 | 7th | 17/2 | 55% | 14% | -0.41 |