3
Crystal Flyer
5yo Mare · 9-4 · OR 92
Newmarket · Betway British EBF Rosemary Stakes (Fillies' And Mares' Listed) · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Pontefract | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Pontefract | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2026-05-17 | Hamilton | 3 | 7th | 10th | −2 |
| 2026-05-01 | Goodwood | 1 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-11-20 | Lingfield | 1 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength29%
Delivery trend -1.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 24/10/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 55% | +0.18 |
| 08/11/2025 | 6th | 100/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 20/11/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 01/05/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/05/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 17/06/2026 | 11th | 125/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 07/07/2026 | 2nd | 66/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |
| 26/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |