7
Estissa
3yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 98
Newmarket · Betway British EBF Rosemary Stakes (Fillies' And Mares' Listed) · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 2.4)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | York | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Sandown | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-04-10 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-03-23 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength91%
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/12/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 23/03/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 10/04/2026 | 2nd | 1/4 | 99% | 67% | -0.32 |
| 18/05/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 04/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 71% | +0.06 |
| 24/07/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 03/09/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |