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Brielle

4yo Filly · 9-5 · OR 101

Newmarket · Princess Royal Stakes (Sponsored By Betway) (Fillies' And Mares' Group 3) · 1m 4f

#1

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

81%

Rank

#1

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Versatile sort who made all in a 1½m listed race on the July Course here in the summer but she'll do well to dominate this stronger race in similar fashion.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength16%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Hamilton 17/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 1m68y Goo 12717/0752 @ York 22/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 82 · 1m2f56y Goo 123 · beat its mark22/08/2025 · OR 82 par4 @ Leicester 09/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 81 · 1m2f Goo 137 · beat its mark09/09/2025 · OR 81 par9/094OR 814 @ Ayr 18/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 81 · 1m2f Goo 131 · beat its mark18/09/2025 · OR 81 par4 @ Nottingham 08/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 87 · 1m6f GS 138 · beat its mark08/10/2025 · OR 87 par8/104OR 871 @ Doncaster 08/11/2025 · Pos 15th of 18 · OR 86 · 1m2f43y Hvy 127 · beat its mark08/11/2025 · OR 86 par4 @ Thirsk 31/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 86 · 1m4f8y Goo 136 · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 86 par31/054OR 861 @ Pontefract 21/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 90 · 1m4f5y Goo 128 · beat its mark21/06/2026 · OR 90 par1 @ Newmarket 18/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 94 · 1m4f GF 132 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 94 par18/071OR 94projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-18Newmarket11st1st−0
2026-06-21Pontefract16th6th−0
2026-05-31Thirsk41st5th−3
2025-11-08Doncaster115th15th−0
2025-10-08Nottingham44th8th−3
2025-09-18Ayr41st5th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0718/0931/0518/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength94%

Delivery trend +7.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/07/20251st6/594%100%+0.06
22/08/20256th18/15%58%+0.53
09/09/20253rd5/287%60%-0.27
18/09/20251st11/486%100%+0.14
08/10/20254th9/153%63%+0.10
08/11/202515th100/10%18%+0.18
31/05/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
21/06/20266th33/10%38%+0.38
18/07/20261st33/10%100%+1.00