3
Coedana
4yo Filly · 9-5 · OR 105
Newmarket · Princess Royal Stakes (Sponsored By Betway) (Fillies' And Mares' Group 3) · 1m 4f
#6
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Pontefract | 1 | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Carlisle | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Goodwood | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2025-10-17 | Haydock | 3 | 3rd | 6th | −2 |
| 2025-09-26 | Newcastle | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-09-02 | Southwell | 5 | 1st | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength93%
Delivery trend +5.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/05/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 31/05/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |
| 17/06/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 02/09/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 26/09/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 17/10/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 01/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 30/05/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 21/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |