Frances Ethel
6yo Mare · 9-5 · OR 97
Newmarket · Princess Royal Stakes (Sponsored By Betway) (Fillies' And Mares' Group 3) · 1m 4f
#11
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 4th | 4th | −0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Ascot | 2 | 4th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-12-03 | Lingfield | 2 | 2nd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-11-17 | Newcastle | 2 | 5th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-10-10 | Newmarket | 1 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2024-11-30 | Turffontein | ? | 9th | 10th | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +8.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05/2024 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 12/10/2024 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 91% | +0.12 |
| 02/11/2024 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 30/11/2024 | 9th | 17/2 | 55% | 56% | +0.00 |
| 10/10/2025 | 9th | 125/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/11/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 03/12/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 08/08/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 03/09/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 70% | +0.12 |