9
Summerson
3yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 96
Newmarket · Princess Royal Stakes (Sponsored By Betway) (Fillies' And Mares' Group 3) · 1m 4f
#4
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | York | 1 | 4th | 4th | −0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Ffos Las | 3 | 1st | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-07-10 | Chester | 3 | 2nd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-06-18 | Yarmouth | 4 | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength82%
Delivery trend +6.8% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06/2026 | 2nd | 16/5 | 83% | 86% | +0.03 |
| 10/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 28/07/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 20/08/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |