10
Sunshine Star
3yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 95
Newmarket · Princess Royal Stakes (Sponsored By Betway) (Fillies' And Mares' Group 3) · 1m 4f
#8
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength13%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.6
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Newmarket | 1 | 4th | 4th | −0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Windsor | 4 | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-06-04 | Lingfield | 3 | 1st | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-04-24 | Sandown | 3 | 6th | 9th | −2 |
| 2025-10-10 | Kempton | 2 | 2nd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 6-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength20%
Delivery trend +9.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 80% | -0.10 |
| 24/04/2026 | 6th | 8/11 | 96% | 44% | -0.52 |
| 04/06/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 20/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 01/08/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 57% | +0.15 |