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11

Venetia

3yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 95

Newmarket · Princess Royal Stakes (Sponsored By Betway) (Fillies' And Mares' Group 3) · 1m 4f

#12

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Responded well to first-time cheekpieces when making all in Goodwood listed race (1¼m, soft) in June but her limitations have seemingly been exposed at Group level twice since.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength31%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Salisbury 02/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR - · 1m Goo 1282/1045 @ Kempton 05/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR - · 1m Sta 1282 @ Chelmsford City 04/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 1m Std 1284/1224 @ Ascot 09/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 77 · 1m1f212y Goo 119 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 77 par3 @ Goodwood 22/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 81 · 1m3f218y Goo 116 · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 81 par22/053OR 811 @ Goodwood 07/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 82 · 1m1f197y Sft 128 · beat its mark07/06/2026 · OR 82 par1 @ Royal Ascot 18/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 95 · 1m3f211y GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 95 par18/061OR 951 @ Deauville 16/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 95 · 1m4f94y GS 125 · beat its mark16/08/2026 · OR 95 par16/081OR 95projClass-projected finish: 10th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-16Deauville17th7th0
2026-06-18Royal Ascot18th8th+0
2026-06-07Goodwood11st1st−0
2026-05-22Goodwood32nd5th−2
2026-05-09Ascot41st5th−3
2025-12-04Chelmsford City23rd5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/109/0518/0616/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 3-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength35%

Delivery trend +2.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/10/20256th5/287%50%-0.37
05/11/20252nd11/271%92%+0.21
04/12/20253rd6/594%75%-0.19
09/05/20261st11/142%100%+0.58
22/05/20262nd6/492%88%-0.05
07/06/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
18/06/20268th50/10%36%+0.36
16/08/20267th12/137%0%-0.37