1
Light Of Dawn
2yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 101
Newmarket · Betway Rockfel Stakes (Fillies' Group 2) · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Goodwood | 1 | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Deauville | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Carlisle | 2 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength90%
Delivery trend -2.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/06/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 92% | +0.50 |
| 02/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 71% | -0.21 |
| 30/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |