4
Redline
2yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 79
Newmarket · Betway Rockfel Stakes (Fillies' Group 2) · 7f
#7
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲3
Strength7%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.9
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Goodwood | 1 | 8th | 8th | −0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ayr | 4 | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Carlisle | 4 | 1st | 5th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 9-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -8.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/06/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 06/07/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 30/08/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |