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10

Sugar Yes Please

2yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 102

Newmarket · Betway Rockfel Stakes (Fillies' Group 2) · 7f

#1

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

92%

Place Prob

70%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Confirmed debut promise with a smooth success at Newbury (6f) in July and improved another chunk when following up in the Sweet Solera Stakes in the July Course last month. Arguably value for extra too so she demands respect.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲3
Strength8%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 2.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.9
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newbury 23/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 6f Goo 12523/0644 @ Newbury 09/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 6f GF 1289/0741 @ Newmarket 08/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 78 · 7f GF 128 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 78 par8/081OR 78projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-08Newmarket11st1st−0
2026-07-09Newbury41st5th−4
2026-06-23Newbury44th8th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/069/078/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +14.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/06/20264th12/137%67%+0.30
09/07/20261st5/493%100%+0.07
08/08/20261st11/142%100%+0.58