1
Audience
7yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 106
Newmarket · Betway Joel Stakes (Group 2) · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.6
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Leopardstown | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Leopardstown | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Curragh | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Leopardstown | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Haydock | 1 | 9th | 10th | −0 |
| 2026-03-06 | Meydan | 1 | 13th | 13th | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength78%
Delivery trend +5.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/01/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 78% | +0.07 |
| 23/01/2026 | 12th | 8/1 | 58% | 21% | -0.36 |
| 28/02/2026 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/03/2026 | 13th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/05/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 11/06/2026 | 2nd | 28/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 19/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 06/08/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 71% | +0.06 |
| 12/09/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |