5
Hankelow
3yo Colt · 9-2 · OR 112
Newmarket · Betway Joel Stakes (Group 2) · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
54%
Place Prob
38%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Haydock | 1 | 4th | 4th | −0 |
| 2026-08-22 | York | 1 | 9th | 9th | −0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Chantilly | 1 | 13th | 13th | +0 |
| 2026-05-10 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | +0 |
| 2025-10-11 | Newmarket | 1 | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2025-09-12 | Doncaster | 1 | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength20%
Delivery trend -6.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 12/09/2025 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 86% | -0.08 |
| 11/10/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 10/05/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 31/05/2026 | 13th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 22/08/2026 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 20% | -0.51 |
| 05/09/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 63% | -0.11 |