2
Persica
5yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 114
Newmarket · Betway Joel Stakes (Group 2) · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
32%
Place Prob
30%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.7
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Haydock | 1 | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-08-22 | York | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Newbury | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Sandown | 1 | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 5th | 6th | −0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Epsom Downs | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength90%
Delivery trend +3.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09/2025 | 12th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 14/11/2025 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 15/04/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 05/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 16/06/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 73% | +0.68 |
| 03/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 18/07/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 22/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 05/09/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |