3
The Lost King
4yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 110
Newmarket · Betway Joel Stakes (Group 2) · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Haydock | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-08-20 | York | 2 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-11 | York | 2 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-18 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 27th | 29th | −2 |
| 2026-05-02 | Newmarket | 2 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-04-03 | Newcastle | 2 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength73%
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/01/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 04/02/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 89% | -0.05 |
| 07/03/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 03/04/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 85% | +0.03 |
| 02/05/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 73% | +0.17 |
| 18/06/2026 | 27th | 33/1 | 0% | 4% | +0.04 |
| 11/07/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 20/08/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 05/09/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 88% | +0.19 |