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7

Wild Desert

3yo Colt · 9-2 · OR 102

Newmarket · Betway Joel Stakes (Group 2) · 1m

#6

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Useful juvenile who made a winning debut at Haydock and placed next 3 starts, including runner-up in a Woodbine Grade 1. However, well beaten in listed race/handicap on first 2 outings this season, before acting as pacemaker when mid-field in a Deauville Group 3 last time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength17%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Haydock 23/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 6f212y Goo 13323/0534 @ Newmarket 21/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR - · 7f GF 13621/0641 @ Newmarket 12/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 94 · 7f GF 129 · beat its mark12/07/2025 · OR 94 par12/071OR 94C0 @ Woodbine 13/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 104 · 1m Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/09/2025 · OR 104 par13/09C?OR 1041 @ Newmarket 09/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 106 · 1m Goo 131 · below its mark09/07/2026 · OR 106 par9/071OR 1062 @ Goodwood 01/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 105 · 7f GF 135 · below its mark01/08/2026 · OR 105 par1/082OR 105C1 @ Deauville 09/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 104 · 7f209y GS 125 · beat its mark09/08/2026 · OR 104 par9/08C1OR 104projClass-projected finish: 7th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-09Deauville?6th6th−0
2026-08-01Goodwood210th12th−2
2026-07-09Newmarket16th7th−0
2025-09-13Woodbine?2nd2nd+0
2025-07-12Newmarket13rd3rd0
2025-06-21Newmarket42nd6th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0513/099/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength8%

Delivery trend +4.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/05/20251st1/195%100%+0.05
21/06/20252nd30/10098%75%-0.23
12/07/20253rd7/282%67%-0.15
13/09/20252nd6/492%89%-0.03
09/07/20266th9/276%17%-0.60
01/08/202610th11/142%25%-0.17
09/08/20266th40/10%55%+0.55