1
Archers Bay
3yo Colt · 9-4 · OR 100
Newmarket · Betway Godolphin Stakes (Listed) · 1m 4f
#3
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.6
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Ascot | 2 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Ascot | 3 | 1st | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-07-10 | Newmarket | 2 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-01 | Newmarket | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Newmarket | 3 | 1st | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-12-06 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 1st | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 467% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength77%
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 4.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 05/10/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 20/10/2025 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 06/12/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 15/04/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 01/05/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 10/07/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 08/08/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 05/09/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |