10
Livemore
3yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 78
Newmarket · Betway Bet 10 Get 40 Handicap · 1m 1f
#9
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Newbury | 4 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-17 | Newmarket | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Nottingham | 4 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 10-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -26.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 17/07/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 26/08/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |