6
Silca Bay
4yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 79
Newmarket · Betway Bet 10 Get 40 Handicap · 1m 1f
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Goodwood | 3 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Brighton | 4 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Newmarket | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-03 | Sandown | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Goodwood | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Salisbury | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 7-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength2%
Delivery trend -7.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/12/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 73% | +0.57 |
| 06/04/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 63% | +0.05 |
| 06/05/2026 | 14th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 23/05/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 70% | +0.28 |
| 05/06/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 03/07/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 18/07/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 05/08/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 30/08/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |