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Waterford Castle

3yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 88

Newmarket · Betway Bet 10 Get 40 Handicap · 1m 1f

#1

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

97%

Place Prob

78%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Placed in 4 handicaps this season, including when running right up to his best in first-time blinkers when third at Glorious Goodwood. Didn't have to improve when landing the odds back in a maiden at Yarmouth 6 weeks ago and he should remain competitive back in a handicap.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength46%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Ffos Las 13/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 7f80y Goo 13313/0854 @ Wolverhampton 23/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 81 · 7f36y Std 125 · beat its mark23/02/2026 · OR 81 par4 @ Wolverhampton 23/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 78 · 1m142y Std 128 · beat its mark23/03/2026 · OR 78 par23/034OR 783 @ Newmarket 15/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 80 · 1m2f Gd 125 · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 80 par3 @ Ascot 09/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 84 · 1m1f212y Goo 135 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 84 par9/053OR 842 @ Royal Ascot 18/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 19 · OR 86 · 1m3f211y GF 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 86 par3 @ Yarmouth 08/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 86 · 1m2f23y GF 132 · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 86 par8/073OR 863 @ Goodwood 31/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 86 · 1m3f44y GF 131 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 86 par3 @ Windsor 13/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 88 · 1m2f GF 133 · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 88 par13/083OR 88projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-13Windsor31st1st0
2026-07-31Goodwood33rd3rd0
2026-07-08Yarmouth32nd2nd0
2026-06-18Royal Ascot27th6th+1
2026-05-09Ascot32nd2nd0
2026-04-15Newmarket32nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0815/048/0713/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/08/20256th15/261%44%-0.16
23/02/20262nd4/696%86%-0.11
23/03/20262nd4/696%67%-0.30
15/04/20262nd15/261%86%+0.25
09/05/20262nd7/491%75%-0.16
18/06/20267th20/10%67%+0.67
08/07/20262nd11/1094%80%-0.14
31/07/20263rd6/168%83%+0.15
13/08/20261st4/696%100%+0.04