7
Aroa
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 42
Remington Park · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
89%
Place Prob
69%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Remington Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-10 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-17 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-20 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength64%
Delivery trend -3.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 92% | +0.76 |
| 16/11/2025 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 14/12/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |
| 20/01/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 17/02/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 89% | -0.03 |
| 10/03/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 83% | -0.08 |
| 07/04/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |
| 21/04/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 29% | -0.40 |
| 06/09/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |