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2

Sure Thing Samurai

4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 29

Remington Park · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 7f

#8

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength50%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Remington Park 19/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 36 · 1m Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/10/2025 · OR 36 par19/10C6OR 36C9 @ Remington Park 15/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 37 · 1m110y Fas 118 · beat its mark15/11/2025 · OR 37 parC6 @ Remington Park 12/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 40 · 1m110y 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/12/2025 · OR 40 par12/12C6OR 40C9 @ Will Rogers Downs 20/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 35 · 1m 126 · beat its mark20/01/2026 · OR 35 parC6 @ Will Rogers Downs 03/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 36 · 1m 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/02/2026 · OR 36 par3/02C6OR 36C9 @ Will Rogers Downs 17/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 32 · 1m Fas 126 · beat its mark17/02/2026 · OR 32 parC9 @ Will Rogers Downs 24/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 28 · 1m 126 · beat its mark24/03/2026 · OR 28 par24/03C9OR 28C9 @ Will Rogers Downs 07/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 27 · 1m 126 · beat its mark07/04/2026 · OR 27 parC9 @ Will Rogers Downs 21/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 25 · 1m 126 · beat its mark21/04/2026 · OR 25 par21/04C9OR 25projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-21Will Rogers Downs?3rd3rd0
2026-04-07Will Rogers Downs?6th6th0
2026-03-24Will Rogers Downs?4th4th0
2026-02-17Will Rogers Downs?6th6th0
2026-02-03Will Rogers Downs?7th4th+3
2026-01-20Will Rogers Downs?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/1020/0124/0321/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/10/20256th50/10%38%+0.38
15/11/20255th33/10%43%+0.43
12/12/20255th33/10%33%+0.33
20/01/20263rd20/10%60%+0.60
03/02/20267th33/10%25%+0.25
17/02/20266th12/137%44%+0.08
24/03/20264th20/10%50%+0.50
07/04/20266th40/10%44%+0.44
21/04/20263rd80/10%71%+0.71