3
Caleb's Finest
4yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 74
Remington Park · Race 2 - Allowance · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Remington Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-21 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-03-10 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-02-24 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-21 | Remington Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-11-30 | Remington Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +7.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/04/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 30/08/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 31/10/2025 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 14% | -0.52 |
| 30/11/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 21/12/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 24/02/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 10/03/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 21/04/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 12/09/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |