3
Carcagny
3yo Filly · 9-2
Saint-Cloud · Prix De Villaroche Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Salon-De-Provence | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Vichy | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Marseille-borely | 1 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Marseille-borely | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Marseille-borely | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Marseille-borely | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +7.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 15/12/2025 | 7th | 6/4 | 92% | 0% | -0.92 |
| 20/02/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 18/03/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 10/04/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 18/05/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 12/06/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 20/07/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 14/09/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |