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2

Thing For The Hot

3yo Gelding · 9-4

Saint-Cloud · Prix De Villaroche Handicap · 1m 1f 207y

#1

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

96%

Place Prob

74%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength11%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 2.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Saint-Cloud 29/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR - · 7f209y Sft 12829/03C5C5 @ Fontainebleau 11/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR - · 1m208y Sft 12811/04C5C5 @ Le Lion D'angers 07/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR - · 1m1f207y Hvy 1287/05C5C5 @ Compiegne 05/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 1m208y GS 1285/06C5C5 @ Dieppe 23/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 1m1f152y GS 12823/06C5C5 @ Compiegne 16/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 1m208y GS 12816/07C5C0 @ Deauville 13/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR - · 1m1f97y Sft 13113/08C?projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13ParisLongchamp?0
2026-08-13Deauville?1st1st0
2026-07-16Compiegne?1st1st0
2026-06-23Dieppe?2nd2nd0
2026-06-05Compiegne?2nd2nd0
2026-05-07Le Lion D'angers?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/035/0613/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength52%

Delivery trend +0.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/03/20267th16/116%50%+0.34
11/04/20264th18/15%70%+0.65
07/05/20263rd7/491%83%-0.07
05/06/20262nd5/174%90%+0.16
23/06/20262nd15/890%83%-0.07
16/07/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
13/08/20261st14/126%100%+0.74