2
Cosy Bear
3yo Gelding · 8-13
Saint-Cloud · Prix Caracalla Stakes · 1m 3f 204y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
99%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Deauville | 1 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-18 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-20 | Fontainebleau | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2025-12-29 | Deauville | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +2.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 82% | +0.16 |
| 10/11/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 90% | +0.01 |
| 06/12/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 92% | +0.01 |
| 29/12/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 93% | +0.06 |
| 20/04/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 82% | +0.19 |
| 28/05/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 53% | +0.16 |
| 18/06/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 13/08/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 44% | -0.03 |
| 31/08/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |