4
Sydney Sunset
3yo Gelding · 8-13
Saint-Cloud · Prix Caracalla Stakes · 1m 3f 204y
#6
Rank
Odds
13/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 11.0 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 2
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-05-25 | Compiegne | ? | 11th | 14th | −3 |
| 2026-05-08 | Strasbourg | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-03-24 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-03-05 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-02-25 | Chantilly | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength47%
Delivery trend +4.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |
| 26/09/2025 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 09/10/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |
| 25/02/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 05/03/2026 | 13th | 7/2 | 82% | 8% | -0.74 |
| 24/03/2026 | 12th | 14/1 | 26% | 15% | -0.11 |
| 08/05/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 25/05/2026 | 11th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/09/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |