3
Van Blutch
3yo Colt · 8-13
Saint-Cloud · Prix Caracalla Stakes · 1m 3f 204y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.1
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Dieppe | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Nantes | 1 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Saint-Cloud | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Saint-Cloud | 2 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Saint-Cloud | 1 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength61%
Delivery trend -3.8% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 06/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 25/10/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 17/04/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 17% | -0.25 |
| 15/05/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |
| 12/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 01/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 75% | -0.19 |
| 24/08/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |