1
Timur
2yo Colt · 8-13
Saint-Cloud · Prix Des Trois Roses D'argent Stakes · 5f 212y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Deauville | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Deauville | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Deauville | 1 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-06-23 | Dieppe | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-06-06 | Dieppe | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-05-13 | Vichy | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength81%
Delivery trend +3.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 13/05/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 06/06/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 23/06/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 04/07/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/08/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 89% | +0.73 |
| 25/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |