IvyArcIvyArc
2

Orangette

2yo Filly · 9-3

Saint-Cloud · Prix Thebais Handicap · 7f 209y

#2

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

19%

Place Prob

26%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ La Teste De Buch 21/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 4f213y Sft 12421/03C53 @ Bordeaux Le Bouscat 15/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 6f211y GS 12115/063C5 @ La Teste De Buch 01/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 1241/07C5C0 @ Vichy 25/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 6f211y GS 12925/07C?2 @ La Teste De Buch 10/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 6f211y GS 12210/082C0 @ Deauville 25/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 7f100y GS 13025/08C?projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 11
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-25Deauville?3rd3rd0
2026-08-10La Teste De Buch25th5th0
2026-07-25Vichy?1st1st0
2026-07-01La Teste De Buch?6th6th0
2026-06-15Bordeaux Le Bouscat34th4th0
2026-03-21La Teste De Buch?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0315/061/0725/0710/0825/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 4-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength21%

Delivery trend -7.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/03/20265th28/10%43%+0.43
15/06/20264th28/10%73%+0.73
01/07/20266th4/179%62%-0.17
25/07/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
10/08/20265th11/142%33%-0.09
25/08/20263rd10/147%75%+0.28