4
Dschingis Arrow
5yo Gelding · 9-4
Saint-Cloud · Prix Du Val D'oise Handicap · 1m 3f 204y
#7
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Le Lion D'angers | 4 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-08-20 | Le Lion D'angers | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-02 | Le Lion D'angers | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-04 | ParisLongchamp | 4 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-05-14 | Le Lion D'angers | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Saint-Cloud | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1673% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength93%
Delivery trend +2.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/12/2025 | 14th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.02 |
| 04/03/2026 | 7th | 17/2 | 55% | 57% | +0.02 |
| 15/04/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 24/04/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 14/05/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 83% | +0.68 |
| 04/06/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 02/08/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 93% | +0.78 |
| 20/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 04/09/2026 | 7th | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |