6
Karioitahi
9yo Mare · 9-3
Saint-Cloud · Prix Du Val D'oise Handicap · 1m 3f 204y
#9
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.9 /10 (raw 7.1)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Saint-Cloud | 4 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-08-16 | Deauville | 3 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Clairefontaine | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-28 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | ParisLongchamp | 4 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-05-07 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1627% of fieldRange 7-16 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength14%
Delivery trend -1.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 27/03/2026 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 17/04/2026 | 14th | 12/1 | 37% | 13% | -0.24 |
| 07/05/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 04/06/2026 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 28/06/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 01/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 63% | +0.26 |
| 16/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 07/09/2026 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 38% | -0.38 |