16
Sunbeam
10yo Gelding · 8-9
Saint-Cloud · Prix Du Val D'oise Handicap · 1m 3f 204y
#11
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength13%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 10.1 /10 (raw 7.2)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Le Lion D'angers | 4 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-08-02 | Le Lion D'angers | 4 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-07-21 | Chateaubriant | 4 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-03-13 | Senonnes-Pouance | 4 | 12th | 13th | −1 |
| 2025-12-22 | Deauville | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-11-25 | Deauville | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1647% of fieldRange 7-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength32%
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 62% | +0.35 |
| 28/09/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 42% | -0.06 |
| 21/10/2025 | 13th | 66/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 25/11/2025 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 22/12/2025 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 47% | +0.20 |
| 13/03/2026 | 12th | 20/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 21/07/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 02/08/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 20/08/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |