2
Derni Chop
3yo Gelding · 8-11
Salon-De-Provence · Prix D'arles Handicap · 1m 3f 204y
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Vichy | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Vichy | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Lyon-Parilly | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Lyon-Parilly | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Vichy | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength67%
Delivery trend -5.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10/2025 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 29/03/2026 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 27/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 75% | +0.33 |
| 13/05/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 91% | +0.15 |
| 22/06/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 21/07/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 14/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 07/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |