4
Tiki Dreams
3yo Filly · 8-7
Salon-De-Provence · Prix D'arles Handicap · 1m 3f 204y
#5
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 7.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Salon-De-Provence | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Vichy | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Chantilly | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Compiegne | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 5-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -10.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/2025 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 09/12/2025 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 79% | +0.73 |
| 03/04/2026 | 10th | 66/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 01/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 28/05/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 09/06/2026 | 12th | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |
| 07/07/2026 | 12th | 20/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 23/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 14/09/2026 | 13th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |