3
Baileys Rock
4yo Gelding · 9-5
Salon-De-Provence · Prix De La Cote Bleue Handicap · 1m 208y
#8
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 7.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.4
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Aix-Les-Bains | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-30 | Aix-Les-Bains | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-02-14 | Lyon La Soie | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-30 | Deauville | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-12-17 | Deauville | ? | 14th | 15th | −1 |
| 2025-11-10 | Amiens | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength62%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/2025 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 22% | +0.17 |
| 17/12/2025 | 14th | 80/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 30/01/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 14/02/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 55% | +0.49 |
| 30/06/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 14/07/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |