5
Beautiful Mess
4yo Filly · 9-4
Salon-De-Provence · Prix De La Cote Bleue Handicap · 1m 208y
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.9 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.6
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | 4 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Toulouse | 4 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Toulouse | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-02 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 3 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-01-20 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 3 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-12-26 | Pau | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength95%
Delivery trend +0.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 21/10/2025 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 11/11/2025 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 26/12/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 20/01/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 14% | -0.68 |
| 02/02/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 18/03/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 64% | +0.59 |
| 19/04/2026 | 14th | 25/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 12/09/2026 | 13th | 66/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |