5
Dengie
4yo Filly · 9-1
Salon-De-Provence · Prix Emile Ribal Handicap · 1m 208y
#9
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.9 /10 (raw 7.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Vichy | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Salon-De-Provence | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Salon-De-Provence | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Vichy | 4 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-02-11 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 3 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
| 2026-01-24 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 3 | 14th | 13th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 4-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength44%
Delivery trend +9.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10/2025 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 13% | -0.51 |
| 27/11/2025 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 08/12/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 24/01/2026 | 14th | 33/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 11/02/2026 | 13th | 33/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 13/05/2026 | 15th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/05/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 17/06/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 03/09/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |