4
Don Falco
7yo Gelding · 9-2
Salon-De-Provence · Prix Emile Ribal Handicap · 1m 208y
#2
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Vichy | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Marseille | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Marseille | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Marseille-borely | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Marseille-borely | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 3-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength42%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/03/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 69% | +0.11 |
| 22/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 03/04/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 69% | +0.53 |
| 18/04/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 27/04/2026 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 18/05/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 13% | -0.24 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 91% | +0.54 |
| 20/06/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 38% | -0.10 |
| 25/07/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |