11
Tanfepas
4yo Filly · 8-7
Salon-De-Provence · Prix Emile Ribal Handicap · 1m 208y
#11
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.2 /10 (raw 6.4)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Vichy | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Marseille-borely | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Marseille-borely | 4 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-01-24 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 3 | 14th | 13th | +1 |
| 2025-12-06 | Marseille | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-11-24 | Marseille | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 9-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength3%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 30/09/2025 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 43% | +0.01 |
| 12/11/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 24/11/2025 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 17% | -0.25 |
| 06/12/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 24/01/2026 | 14th | 40/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 18/03/2026 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 10/04/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 12/08/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |