3
Conquer We Must
3yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 101
Santa Anita · Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
98%
Place Prob
83%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Del Mar | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Del Mar | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 5-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -64.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 88% | +0.72 |
| 19/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 90% | +0.04 |
| 08/08/2026 | 7th | 15/8 | 90% | 33% | -0.57 |