4
Chasing Kat
5yo Mare · 8-13 · OR 82
Santa Anita · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | Del Mar | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Del Mar | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-01 | Del Mar | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-17 | Del Mar | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-07-06 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength18%
Delivery trend -11.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 25/05/2025 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 15/06/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 06/07/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 17/08/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 01/09/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 89% | -0.01 |
| 16/08/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 30/08/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |
| 11/09/2026 | 7th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |