6
Willow Cove
6yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 79
Santa Anita · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-27 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-15 | Santa Anita | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-18 | Santa Anita | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-24 | Del Mar | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-26 | Santa Anita | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength63%
Delivery trend +4.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/2024 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 13/06/2024 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 04/08/2024 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 26/09/2025 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 24/11/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 63% | +0.02 |
| 18/01/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 45% | -0.36 |
| 15/02/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 27/02/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 21/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |