After Dawn

3yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 85

Santa Anita · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 1f

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

10%

Place Prob

16%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength25%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.3

Today:

Class gap: +1.3

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-13	Del Mar	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-06-27	Los Alamitos Racecourse	?	6th	3rd	+3	7.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +60.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
27/06/2026	6th	20/1	0%	0%	0.00
13/08/2026	3rd	25/1	0%	60%	+0.60